Vedran Horvat

Final reckoning with the corruption, more social justice and full membership in the European Union in the next two years could be the first results of the potential cohabitation between Ivo Josipović (SDP), newly elected president of Republic of Croatia and Jadranka Kosor (HDZ), recently appointed - and so far quite successful - prime minister. In such a manner Croatia has finally turned new page in its short history and strongly knocked down the latest strikes of nationalistic populists personalised in figures of ex prime minister Ivo Sanader and Zagreb major Milan Bandić.

After the summer 2009 when country was hardly hit by economic crisis (from which it still has not recovered) and when prime minister Ivo Sanader abruptly (and without explanations) resigned from his position generating political crisis not only in his party but also in the country, there is somewhat of positive momentum gained in the last month. Firstly, putchist 'comeback' of discarded prime minister Ivo Sanader affiliated with numerous corruption affairs (starting with Hypo Alpe Adria bank) through his fraction in the party was successfully bounced back by successful and skilful Jadranka Kosor.

Political end instead of comeback

Appointed by him at that time, she was thought to be a puppet on the string but with few tactic moves within few months (such as unblocking the negotiations with EU and resolving boarder issue with Slovenia to major extent) she demonstrated not only much more autonomy and sovereignty, but also recognition in the international arena, what provoked Ivo Sanader to initiate his comeback, taking aside his ambitions to avoid potential legal proceedings against him. Secondly, more than convincing victory of Ivo Josipović (60% of support), a left pro-European lawyer (member of social democratic party who will be appointed on 18th of February) against nationalistic populist Milan Bandić, supported by right wing war veterans, Church and Diaspora, indeed demonstrates that regressive nationalistic political forces (very closely linked with organized crime and client based networks) have been defeated.

Good wind for Croatia

These two moments bring good wind for Croatia on its way to the European Union, anticipating closing negotiations by the end of 2010. Hence, there is a chance that artificial divisions to red and right (ex communist and nationalists) might eventually be suppressed by progressive European agenda.

These new circumstances could reverse quite low support of the public toward membership in the European Union and take away stronger arguments of nationalistic options that want to continue with 'business as usual' (such as non-transparent privatisation of resources, corruptive practices in public enterprises tc.)  Decisive fight against the corruption, more intense regional cooperation and human rights are presented as the core areas of interest for Ivo Josipović as the new president.

Although with weak powers reduced to ceremonial statements and high diplomacy, he will be able to provide continuity of balance toward the Government that was so far successfully performed by Stjepan Mesić in the last ten years. Therefore, he will be able to direct and shape political landscape of the country and assist country in joining the European Union by enhancing chances for respecting 'rule of law' and, what is encouraging, through the stronger involvement of civil society organisations.

Even more, it appears that there is a high potential for possible cooperation between Ivo Josipović  and Jadranka Kosor in bringing country to the full membership in the EU. Taking into account that both Kosor and Josipović do not have any corruptive ‘’spots’’ on their careers, they could certainly be right figures on the forefront of announced upcoming fight against the corruption and joining the European Union.

Potential positive spillover to countries in the region?

Still, it remains to be seen how two big political parties – HDZ and SDP – now significantly affected by the outcome of the presidential elections - will resolve their internal disputes and what will change within the electorate. Even more, it remains to see how new directly elected president will emancipate himself from his party background.  Constitutional reforms announced for spring, continuation of the accession negotiations with the EU and decisive fight against the corruption now remain among first priorities.

Country is now facing momentum where a whole society needs to be much more involved in pursuing reforms, not only State alone. In this context, integrative function of the new president can have a crucial role, outreaching broader support for the advocated change. Anything else would leave more room for the new backlash or strong opposition of corruption networks that lie behind populist options, often using nationalistic discourse to gain more legitimacy. 

Kosor gesture toward Slovenia, and Josipović's reconcilliating motion toward Serbia might be the first steps toward higher degree of cooperation in the region thus providing positive impetus or even spillover to the region.